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PMS 425

PMS 425

PMS 425

NWCG Guide to Fire Weather Forecasts PMS 425

1. Introduction

2. Fire Weather Forecast Variables

3. Types of Fire Weather Forecasts

4. Building a Mental Model of the Weather Forecast

1. Introduction

Fire weather forecasts are likely one of the first professional introductions firefighters have to meteorological information. They may even be the first thing a firefighter reads each day when they get to their duty station. Forecasts convey certain atmospheric variables. The intent of this guide is to describe best-practices on how to interpret and use the weather information provided.

Fire weather forecasts include several components:

  • Header information
    • Date and time the forecast is valid for
    • Applicable forecast headline
  • Forecast discussion
  • Mandatory forecast elements of sky/weather
    • Temperature
    • Relative humidity (RH)
    • Wind
  • Optional forecast elements that may include the chance of:
    • Wetting rain
    • Mixing height
    • Transport wind
    • Smoke dispersal
    • Inversion information
    • Haines Index
    • Lightning activity level (LAL)
    • Extended forecast or outlook

Each forecast element is generally given only one value per operational period.

The weather forecast is a static document that may not adequately describe the changes one sees in the weather through an operational period. For example, fire weather forecasts only provide the high temperature for day operational periods and the low temperature for night operational periods. It is left up to the firefighter to interpret how fast and when the temperature will rise and/or fall during their shift. Consistent weather is a firefighter’s friend. It is the change in weather conditions that prove problematic and sometimes fatal to operational resources. This publication provides context and interpretation guidelines for fire managers and fireline personnel to make improved decisions with safety in mind.

There are links to online resources throughout this publication. Visit these resources, as additional information and graphics are often provided. The most frequently linked resource is the Agriculture Handbook 360: Fire Weather… A Guide for Application of Meteorological Information to Forest Fire Control Operations, PMS 425-1. Refer back to it as you learn more about fire weather forecasts.

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NWCG is excited to announce the release of the Leadership Committee’s 2025–2026 Leadership Campaign, themed “Leadership Levels.” This annual initiative offers all students of leadership and wildland fire management an opportunity to engage with essential leadership skills and knowledge needed to lead effectively in dynamic environments.

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References:

2025/2026 NWCG Leadership Campaign - Leadership Levels

Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program

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NWCG is pleased to announce the updated L-280, Followership to Leadership (Instructor-led) course is now available. L-280 is intended for operational personnel at the Firefighter Type 1 level, and for individuals pursuing Leadership Level 2, New Leader. 

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The Equipment Technology Committee (ETC) has released Equipment Advisory 25-01: Pre-2006 Fire Shelter Degradation and Discontinuation of Use. This advisory recommends all pre-2006 fire shelters should be removed from service by January 1, 2026.

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Equipment Advisory 25-01: Pre-2006 Fire Shelter Degradation and Discontinuation of Use

NWCG Fire Inspection Flowchart, PMS 411-1

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The S-219, Firing Operations (Blended) course is now available on the Wildland Fire Learning Portal. Developed through the Incident Performance and Training Modernization (IPTM) effort, this training supports individuals working towards Firing Boss, Single Resource (FIRB) incident qualifications.

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